{ "title": "StatsAI AI model performance", "description": "Aggregate accuracy of StatsAI football predictions compared with bookmaker odds without margin on the same events. Totals only: no users, tickets or individual matches.", "page": "https://statsai.bet/en/ai-model-performance", "license": { "name": "CC BY 4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" }, "attribution": "StatsAI (statsai.bet)", "citation": "StatsAI (2026). AI model performance: football prediction accuracy vs the betting market. https://statsai.bet/en/ai-model-performance (accessed 2026-10-30).", "methodVersion": 1, "generatedAt": "2026-10-30T22:09:01.758Z", "period": { "from": "2026-08-31", "to": "2026-10-29", "comparedFrom": "2026-09-01", "days": 60 }, "definitions": { "event": "One match in one market. The 1X2 probabilities form one distribution; over/under and yes/no are two sides of one estimate.", "brier": "Sum over outcomes of (p - y)^2, averaged over events. 0 is perfect, lower is better; an even 1X2 forecast scores 0.667, a 50:50 two-way forecast 0.5.", "logloss": "-ln of the probability given to the observed outcome, floored at 0.01.", "acc": "Share of events where the most likely outcome happened.", "rps": "Ranked probability score for 1X2 with the order 1 < X < 2.", "raw": "AI model probabilities as published.", "cal": "AI model after out-of-sample calibration: each day's curve is learned only from the previous 90 days.", "mkt": "Pre-match bookmaker odds (first recorded), margin removed proportionally. Only events with odds for every outcome and an overround between 1.00 and 1.40.", "base": "Constant forecast equal to the observed outcome frequencies in the same events.", "intervals": "calVsMkt, rawVsCal and tier diff: Brier difference (first minus second; positive means the second is better) with a 95% bootstrap interval over whole days (1,000 resamples, fixed seed).", "calibration": "Bins of 10 percentage points (i = bin index): pred = mean forecast, obs = observed frequency, ciLo/ciHi = 95% Wilson interval. 1X2 uses all three outcomes, two-way markets only the over/yes side. ece = expected calibration error as a fraction.", "competitionTiers": "Same compared events for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, grouped by competition tier: top = first division, second = second division, lower = third tier and below, other = cups, national teams, confederation competitions, youth, reserves and women's football. Groups below minEvents should not be interpreted." }, "totals": { "rows": 304392, "rowsKnown": 302817, "rowsWithOdds": 235014, "matches": 28297, "unresolvedRows": 9719, "unresolvedMatches": 1264, "events": 65693, "eventsCompared": 57803, "marginExcluded": 247 }, "markets": { "1x2": { "n": 22160, "raw": { "n": 22160, "brier": 0.63099613552698, "logloss": 1.0499852514539587, "acc": 0.4506317689530686, "rps": 0.22000408871914123 }, "cal": { "n": 22160, "brier": 0.6301571095433944, "logloss": 1.0474323675068622, "acc": 0.4506317689530686, "rps": 0.2202464573455702 }, "mkt": { "n": 22160, "brier": 0.590505139775046, "logloss": 0.990018162535563, "acc": 0.5196299638989169, "rps": 0.2053901220145859 }, "base": { "n": 22160, "brier": 0.6461897880853393, "logloss": 1.0680915112423666, "acc": 0.44097472924187725, "rps": 0.2318526689713146 }, "calVsMkt": { "d": 0.03965196976834865, "lo": 0.03584096056887122, "hi": 0.0440438915811717 }, "rawVsCal": { "d": 0.0008390259835852227, "lo": 0.0003514787264256649, "hi": 0.0012685208752027785 } }, "over_under_2_5": { "n": 14018, "raw": { "n": 14018, "brier": 0.5234318305036381, "logloss": 0.734430579898087, "acc": 0.5423740904551291 }, "cal": { "n": 14018, "brier": 0.4958920887419868, "logloss": 0.6893869368249924, "acc": 0.5423740904551291 }, "mkt": { "n": 14018, "brier": 0.47504231690817317, "logloss": 0.6675178247434486, "acc": 0.5900271080039948 }, "base": { "n": 14018, "brier": 0.4956600547884127, "logloss": 0.6888009350733915, "acc": 0.5465829647595948 }, "calVsMkt": { "d": 0.02084977183381381, "lo": 0.018133129713445106, "hi": 0.023395310687499078 }, "rawVsCal": { "d": 0.027539741761651446, "lo": 0.023607718509581564, "hi": 0.03157645240394029 } }, "btts": { "n": 19846, "raw": { "n": 19846, "brier": 0.5217282374281972, "logloss": 0.7244481000198453, "acc": 0.5265544694144916 }, "cal": { "n": 19846, "brier": 0.49612817764798384, "logloss": 0.68941864303111, "acc": 0.5256474856394235 }, "mkt": { "n": 19846, "brier": 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