About StatsAI and our methodology

What StatsAI is

It brings together team and match statistics, AI estimates for the full-time result, goals and both teams to score, a bet slip generator and tracker, a system bet calculator and live scores. The public tools (calculators, Academy, AI model performance) work without signing up. The app has a 7-day free trial, and its basic part stays free after that.

StatsAI does not accept bets, does not pay out winnings and is not a gambling operator. Tickets saved here are for tracking and calculation; you place real bets with a bookmaker of your choice, under its rules.

How the estimates are made

Every estimate is a probability for one outcome of one match. It is built in a few layers:

• Input model: estimates for 1X2, goals 2.5, both teams to score and half-time/full-time come from an external statistical model that we collect every day before the matches.
• StatsAI Elo: our team rating, updated after every match, which gives its own 1X2 estimate where there is enough history.
• A Poisson model for goals by half; combinations (for example home win and both teams to score) are derived from the other estimates.
• Calibration: the raw percentage is corrected with a curve learned only from settled estimates of the previous 90 days, so that 60% really means about 60%.
• The no-vig market: bookmaker odds are turned into probabilities and divided by the sum over all outcomes. This is the benchmark the model is compared with.
• The chance of a pick in the bet slip generator is a mix of the model estimate and the no-vig odds, learned from settled picks. When a bet type has too little history, it leans mostly on the no-vig odds.

An estimate is stored before kick-off and never changed after the result.

How we measure accuracy

Every settled estimate is scored against the result and compared with the no-vig odds on the same matches: Brier score, log loss, calibration and accuracy. Nothing is removed afterwards, good or bad. The numbers are recomputed every morning and frozen into a separate report every month.

What we do not promise

• We do not promise profit. In our measurement the no-vig odds are more accurate than the AI model, and the AI model performance page says so.
• We do not publish profit or ROI from hypothetical betting: odds movement, stake limits and real execution are missing from such a number.
• An estimate is not advice. Even a correct 70% chance misses in roughly three matches out of ten.
• Past results do not guarantee future ones.

Where the data comes from

Results, team statistics and odds come from public statistical sources, a paid sports data service and bookmaker prices before the match. In the measurement, leagues are grouped by competition level, because most single leagues do not have enough matches for a reliable score.

Partners and ads

The site shows partner ads. Partners have no influence on the estimates or on the performance measurement; both are computed by the same code for every match.

Responsible betting

• Adults only (18+), or above the age limit set in your country.
• Only bet money you can afford to lose, and set the amount for the week or month in advance.
• Do not chase losses with bigger stakes; it is the fastest way to a bigger loss.
• If betting becomes a worry, take a break. Most bookmakers offer deposit limits and self-exclusion.

Help: Gamblers Anonymous holds meetings and online groups in several languages, and BeGambleAware has a short self-assessment and advice. Look for a local support service in your country as well.

Contact

Questions, corrections or an account deletion request: write to us on our Telegram channel or through our YouTube channel. If you find a mistake in the numbers or the text, let us know.

Telegram · YouTube

The terms on this page, step by step in the StatsAI Academy: Brier score · Probability calibration · Removing the margin · AI vs bookmaker